How the Hunt Brothers Cornered the Silver Market and Then Lost it All

TL:DR: yes its long. Grab a beer.

Until his dying day in 2014, Nelson Bunker Hunt, who had once been the world’s wealthiest man, denied that he and his brother plotted to corner the global silver market.
Sure, back in 1980, Bunker, his younger brother Herbert, and other members of the Hunt clan owned roughly two-thirds of all the privately held silver on earth. But the historic stockpiling of bullion hadn’t been a ploy to manipulate the market, they and their sizable legal team would insist in the following years. Instead, it was a strategy to hedge against the voracious inflation of the 1970s—a monumental bet against the U.S. dollar.
Whatever the motive, it was a bet that went historically sour. The debt-fueled boom and bust of the global silver market not only decimated the Hunt fortune, but threatened to take down the U.S. financial system.
The panic of “Silver Thursday” took place over 35 years ago, but it still raises questions about the nature of financial manipulation. While many view the Hunt brothers as members of a long succession of white collar crooks, from Charles Ponzi to Bernie Madoff, others see the endearingly eccentric Texans as the victims of overstepping regulators and vindictive insiders who couldn’t stand the thought of being played by a couple of southern yokels.
In either case, the story of the Hunt brothers just goes to show how difficult it can be to distinguish illegal market manipulation from the old fashioned wheeling and dealing that make our markets work.
The Real-Life Ewings
Whatever their foibles, the Hunts make for an interesting cast of characters. Evidently CBS thought so; the family is rumored to be the basis for the Ewings, the fictional Texas oil dynasty of Dallas fame.
Sitting at the top of the family tree was H.L. Hunt, a man who allegedly purchased his first oil field with poker winnings and made a fortune drilling in east Texas. H.L. was a well-known oddball to boot, and his sons inherited many of their father’s quirks.
For one, there was the stinginess. Despite being the richest man on earth in the 1960s, Bunker Hunt (who went by his middle name), along with his younger brothers Herbert (first name William) and Lamar, cultivated an image as unpretentious good old boys. They drove old Cadillacs, flew coach, and when they eventually went to trial in New York City in 1988, they took the subway. As one Texas editor was quoted in the New York Times, Bunker Hunt was “the kind of guy who orders chicken-fried steak and Jello-O, spills some on his tie, and then goes out and buys all the silver in the world.”
Cheap suits aside, the Hunts were not without their ostentation. At the end of the 1970s, Bunker boasted a stable of over 500 horses and his little brother Lamar owned the Kansas City Chiefs. All six children of H.L.’s first marriage (the patriarch of the Hunt family had fifteen children by three women before he died in 1974) lived on estates befitting the scions of a Texas billionaire. These lifestyles were financed by trusts, but also risky investments in oil, real estate, and a host of commodities including sugar beets, soybeans, and, before long, silver.
The Hunt brothers also inherited their father’s political inclinations. A zealous anti-Communist, Bunker Hunt bankrolled conservative causes and was a prominent member of the John Birch Society, a group whose founder once speculated that Dwight Eisenhower was a “dedicated, conscious agent” of Soviet conspiracy. In November of 1963, Hunt sponsored a particularly ill-timed political campaign, which distributed pamphlets around Dallas condemning President Kennedy for alleged slights against the Constitution on the day that he was assassinated. JFK conspiracy theorists have been obsessed with Hunt ever since.
In fact, it was the Hunt brand of politics that partially explains what led Bunker and Herbert to start buying silver in 1973.
Hard Money
The 1970s were not kind to the U.S. dollar.
Years of wartime spending and unresponsive monetary policy pushed inflation upward throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. Then, in October of 1973, war broke out in the Middle East and an oil embargo was declared against the United States. Inflation jumped above 10%. It would stay high throughout the decade, peaking in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution at an annual average of 13.5% in 1980.
Over the same period of time, the global monetary system underwent a historic transformation. Since the first Roosevelt administration, the U.S. dollar had been pegged to the value of gold at a predictable rate of $35 per ounce. But in 1971, President Nixon, responding to inflationary pressures, suspended that relationship. For the first time in modern history, the paper dollar did not represent some fixed amount of tangible, precious metal sitting in a vault somewhere.
For conservative commodity traders like the Hunts, who blamed government spending for inflation and held grave reservations about the viability of fiat currency, the perceived stability of precious metal offered a financial safe harbor. It was illegal to trade gold in the early 1970s, so the Hunts turned to the next best thing.
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Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; chart by Priceonomics

As an investment, there was a lot to like about silver. The Hunts were not alone in fleeing to bullion amid all the inflation and geopolitical turbulence, so the price was ticking up. Plus, light-sensitive silver halide is a key component of photographic film. With the growth of the consumer photography market, new production from mines struggled to keep up with demand.
And so, in 1973, Bunker and Herbert bought over 35 million ounces of silver, most of which they flew to Switzerland in specifically designed airplanes guarded by armed Texas ranch hands. According to one source, the Hunt’s purchases were big enough to move the global market.
But silver was not the Hunts' only speculative venture in the 1970s. Nor was it the only one that got them into trouble with regulators.
Soy Before Silver
In 1977, the price of soybeans was rising fast. Trade restrictions on Brazil and growing demand from China made the legume a hot commodity, and both Bunker and Herbert decided to enter the futures market in April of that year.
A future is an agreement to buy or sell some quantity of a commodity at an agreed upon price at a later date. If someone contracts to buy soybeans in the future (they are said to take the “long” position), they will benefit if the price of soybeans rise, since they have locked in the lower price ahead of time. Likewise, if someone contracts to sell (that’s called the “short” position), they benefit if the price falls, since they have locked in the old, higher price.
While futures contracts can be used by soybean farmers and soy milk producers to guard against price swings, most futures are traded by people who wouldn’t necessarily know tofu from cream cheese. As a de facto insurance contract against market volatility, futures can be used to hedge other investments or simply to gamble on prices going up (by going long) or down (by going short).
When the Hunts decided to go long in the soybean futures market, they went very, very long. Between Bunker, Herbert, and the accounts of five of their children, the Hunts collectively purchased the right to buy one-third of the entire autumn soybean harvest of the United States.
To some, it appeared as if the Hunts were attempting to corner the soybean market.
In its simplest version, a corner occurs when someone buys up all (or at least, most) of the available quantity of a commodity. This creates an artificial shortage, which drives up the price, and allows the market manipulator to sell some of his stockpile at a higher profit.
Futures markets introduce some additional complexity to the cornerer’s scheme. Recall that when a trader takes a short position on a contract, he or she is pledging to sell a certain amount of product to the holder of the long position. But if the holder of the long position just so happens to be sitting on all the readily available supply of the commodity under contract, the short seller faces an unenviable choice: go scrounge up some of the very scarce product in order to “make delivery” or just pay the cornerer a hefty premium and nullify the deal entirely.
In this case, the cornerer is actually counting on the shorts to do the latter, says Craig Pirrong, professor of finance at the University of Houston. If too many short sellers find that it actually costs less to deliver the product, the market manipulator will be stuck with warehouses full of inventory. Finance experts refer to selling the all the excess supply after building a corner as “burying the corpse.”
“That is when the price collapses,” explains Pirrong. “But if the number of deliveries isn’t too high, the loss from selling at the low price after the corner is smaller than the profit from selling contracts at the high price.”
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The Chicago Board of Trade trading floor. Photo credit: Jeremy Kemp

Even so, when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission found that a single family from Texas had contracted to buy a sizable portion of the 1977 soybean crop, they did not accuse the Hunts of outright market manipulation. Instead, noting that the Hunts had exceeded the 3 million bushel aggregate limit on soybean holdings by about 20 million, the CFTC noted that the Hunt’s “excessive holdings threaten disruption of the market and could cause serious injury to the American public.” The CFTC ordered the Hunts to sell and to pay a penalty of $500,000.
Though the Hunts made tens of millions of dollars on paper while soybean prices skyrocketed, it’s unclear whether they were able to cash out before the regulatory intervention. In any case, the Hunts were none too pleased with the decision.
“Apparently the CFTC is trying to repeal the law of supply and demand,” Bunker complained to the press.
Silver Thursday
Despite the run in with regulators, the Hunts were not dissuaded. Bunker and Herbert had eased up on silver after their initial big buy in 1973, but in the fall of 1979, they were back with a vengeance. By the end of the year, Bunker and Herbert owned 21 million ounces of physical silver each. They had even larger positions in the silver futures market: Bunker was long on 45 million ounces, while Herbert held contracts for 20 million. Their little brother Lamar also had a more “modest” position.
By the new year, with every dollar increase in the price of silver, the Hunts were making $100 million on paper. But unlike most investors, when their profitable futures contracts expired, they took delivery. As in 1973, they arranged to have the metal flown to Switzerland. Intentional or not, this helped create a shortage of the metal for industrial supply.
Naturally, the industrialists were unhappy. From a spot price of around $6 per ounce in early 1979, the price of silver shot up to $50.42 in January of 1980. In the same week, silver futures contracts were trading at $46.80. Film companies like Kodak saw costs go through the roof, while the British film producer, Ilford, was forced to lay off workers. Traditional bullion dealers, caught in a squeeze, cried foul to the commodity exchanges, and the New York jewelry house Tiffany & Co. took out a full page ad in the New York Times slamming the “unconscionable” Hunt brothers. They were right to single out the Hunts; in mid-January, they controlled 69% of all the silver futures contracts on the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) in New York.
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Source: New York Times

But as the high prices persisted, new silver began to come out of the woodwork.
“In the U.S., people rifled their dresser drawers and sofa cushions to find dimes and quarters with silver content and had them melted down,” says Pirrong, from the University of Houston. “Silver is a classic part of a bride’s trousseau in India, and when prices got high, women sold silver out of their trousseaus.”
According to a Washington Post article published that March, the D.C. police warned residents of a rash of home burglaries targeting silver.
Unfortunately for the Hunts, all this new supply had a predictable effect. Rather than close out their contracts, short sellers suddenly found it was easier to get their hands on new supplies of silver and deliver.
“The main factor that has caused corners to fail [throughout history] is that the manipulator has underestimated how much will be delivered to him if he succeeds [at] raising the price to artificial levels,” says Pirrong. “Eventually, the Hunts ran out of money to pay for all the silver that was thrown at them.”
In financial terms, the brothers had a large corpse on their hands—and no way to bury it.
This proved to be an especially big problem, because it wasn’t just the Hunt fortune that was on the line. Of the $6.6 billion worth of silver the Hunts held at the top of the market, the brothers had “only” spent a little over $1 billion of their own money. The rest was borrowed from over 20 banks and brokerage houses.
At the same time, COMEX decided to crack down. On January 7, 1980, the exchange’s board of governors announced that it would cap the size of silver futures exposure to 3 million ounces. Those in excess of the cap (say, by the tens of millions) were given until the following month to bring themselves into compliance. But that was too long for the Chicago Board of Trade exchange, which suspended the issue of any new silver futures on January 21. Silver futures traders would only be allowed to square up old contracts.
Predictably, silver prices began to slide. As the various banks and other firms that had backed the Hunt bullion binge began to recognize the tenuousness of their financial position, they issued margin calls, asking the brothers to put up more money as collateral for their debts. The Hunts, unable to sell silver lest they trigger a panic, borrowed even more. By early March, futures contracts had fallen to the mid-$30 range.
Matters finally came to a head on March 25, when one of the Hunts’ largest backers, the Bache Group, asked for $100 million more in collateral. The brothers were out of cash, and Bache was unwilling to accept silver in its place, as it had been doing throughout the month. With the Hunts in default, Bache did the only thing it could to start recouping its losses: it start to unload silver.
On March 27, “Silver Thursday,” the silver futures market dropped by a third to $10.80. Just two months earlier, these contracts had been trading at four times that amount.
The Aftermath
After the oil bust of the early 1980s and a series of lawsuits polished off the remainder of the Hunt brothers’ once historic fortune, the two declared bankruptcy in 1988. Bunker, who had been worth an estimated $16 billion in the 1960s, emerged with under $10 million to his name. That’s not exactly chump change, but it wasn’t enough to maintain his 500-plus stable of horses,.
The Hunts almost dragged their lenders into bankruptcy too—and with them, a sizable chunk of the U.S. financial system. Over twenty financial institutions had extended over a billion dollars in credit to the Hunt brothers. The default and resulting collapse of silver prices blew holes in balance sheets across Wall Street. A privately orchestrated bailout loan from a number of banks allowed the brothers to start paying off their debts and keep their creditors afloat, but the markets and regulators were rattled.
Silver Spot Prices Per Ounce (January, 1979 - June, 1980)
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Source: Trading Economics

In the words of then CFTC chief James Stone, the Hunts’ antics had threatened to punch a hole in the “financial fabric of the United States” like nothing had in decades. Writing about the entire episode a year later, Harper’s Magazine described Silver Thursday as “the first great panic since October 1929.”
The trouble was not over for the Hunts. In the following years, the brothers were dragged before Congressional hearings, got into a legal spat with their lenders, and were sued by a Peruvian mineral marketing company, which had suffered big losses in the crash. In 1988, a New York City jury found for the South American firm, levying a penalty of over $130 million against the Hunts and finding that they had deliberately conspired to corner the silver market.
Surprisingly, there is still some disagreement on that point.
Bunker Hunt attributed the whole affair to the political motives of COMEX insiders and regulators. Referring to himself later as “a favorite whipping boy” of an eastern financial establishment riddled with liberals and socialists, Bunker and his brother, Herbert, are still perceived as martyrs by some on the far-right.
“Political and financial insiders repeatedly changed the rules of the game,” wrote the New American. “There is little evidence to support the ‘corner the market’ narrative.”
Though the Hunt brothers clearly amassed a staggering amount of silver and silver derivatives at the end of the 1970s, it is impossible to prove definitively that market manipulation was in their hearts. Maybe, as the Hunts always claimed, they just really believed in the enduring value of silver.
Or maybe, as others have noted, the Hunt brothers had no idea what they were doing. Call it the stupidity defense.
“They’re terribly unsophisticated,” an anonymous associated was quoted as saying of the Hunts in a Chicago Tribune article from 1989. “They make all the mistakes most other people make,” said another.
p.s. credit to Ben Christopher

SPAC Below 11

First mover advantage and network effect. The big lies in crypto. Don't fall for it.

I figured I would write this up because I keep seeing people making these unfair and misleading first movenetwork effect arguments over and over again, they are just lies. Being first mover or having network effect are not magic things that make everything oke and removes all competition.

First mover advantage

There are more disadvantages to being first mover in this space and tech in general than advantages, the first mover advantage is arguably even a myth. Most of today’s behemoths – from Google and Facebook to Instagram and TikTok – were not first-movers. Moreover, the last 20 years have seen a flood of first-movers failing, with companies like Nokia, Yahoo and G.M. all facing dire straits or going under completely. These are not outliers.
First mover disadvantages: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-mover_advantage#Disadvantages_of_being_a_first_mover

Network effect

Network effect matters, it matters a lot. But there is no such thing as an insurmountable network effect, especially in the current crypto space. There are plenty of examples of disruption of very dominant actors in different industries. Microsoft was a monopoly and Apple managed to take a huge chunk of market share. Yahoo was the dominant search engine and Google took over. Nokia had a 50% market share in the mobile phone industry... Nobody uses MySpace anymore...

Why network effects in crypto are not that significant.
The size of the crypto industry is tiny compared to many other industries and seeing the potential it has. There is so much room to grow. The crypto industry is now at a $1 trillion marketcap. That's a whole industry of a revolutionary new technology that's not even worth half of Apple, one company, alone (https://companiesmarketcap.com/). And there are so many use cases not realized yet. I would argue there hasn't even been real adoption yet, the top applications are DeFi which is for the vast majority used by speculators and yield farmers and not real users, gambling and scams. And there are 22.6M developers in the world while there are only 80k Solidity developers on Ethereum.
There are also NEGATIVE network effects. Instead of 'more users = better experience = more users joining' you get 'more users = worse experience = users leaving'. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect#Negative_network_externalities) We have already seen negative network effects happen and they come to light the best when we are in a bull run (more users join). In 2017 Bitcoin was congested and transaction times and fees skyrocketed (worse experience). The narrative changed from 'p2p cash' used by merchants etc. (usage of Bitcoin in daily transactions was shilled heavily before the network got congested) to 'SoV' only. And people moved over to other solutions and Bitcoin dominance dropped (users leave). Ethereum had similar issues around that time, Cryptokitties alone pretty much stopped Ethereum from working. And currently Ethereum has major issues with congestion and high gas fees as a result. These negative network effects are only going to become worse the more users try to join unless the issues are fixed.
Bitcoin was promised Lightning Network to solve it's scalability issues but as far as I know it is not being adopted after 3-4 years of development and pushing for adoption. So Bitcoin is currently going to stay a SoV only and/or there will be heavy network congestion this bull run.
Ethereum is moving to PoS to solve this but ETH 2.0 is at the very least still a year away, this is way too late for the mass of new users that are coming in. Layer 2 scaling solutions are promised to keep Ethereum running properly until ETH 2.0 but we have yet to see this really happen.

How Cardano plays into this

Cardano was inspired by Bitcoin and learned from the mistakes of both Bitcoin and Ethereum. They took all the good things, got rid of all the bad things and improved. They took Bitcoins monetary policy and security properties for example and improved on e.g. scalability, energy consumption and decentralization. Cardano has the same if not better properties as Bitcoin to be a SoV, let that sink in. They learned from Ethereums problems that arose over the years like the DAO hack and used a rigorous principles first approach using academic peer review, formal methods and a functional programming language to prevent these problems from occuring, this is going to be the industry standard for development (to understand why peer review and formal methods matters see In Defense of Peer Review and what formal methods are https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formal_methods). And created Plutus and Marlowe to minimize bugs/mistakes which were often made using Solidity. They learned from UTxO and account based models and created Extended UTxO which has more benefits. They learned from the terrible fee structure Ethereum has and improved to prevent high fee issues. They learned from the problems Ethereum governance has and made it more decentralized and efficient. They learned that non-profit development running on donations is not sustainable and created an on-chain treasury to fund Cardano development in a decentralized way. The list goes on and on. Also don't forget that IOG is years ahead in research and there is tons of improvements yet to come. The first mover disadvantage here is huge.
There are 22.6M developers in the world and Ethereum has only 80k Solidity developers. Cardano is going to tap into the remaining 22.5M developers and make it easy for Solidity developers to move over to Cardano with IELE, KEVM and the ERC20 converter, see: The Island, The Ocean and the Pond (Soon). You tell me if having 80k developers in a group of 22.6M developers is a network effect anyone should be fearing.
Cardano has an on-chain treasury that is replenished by transaction fees and the reserves. It's worth almost $200M at current ADA price, imagine when ADA is $1 or much much higher. This is a forever sustainable source to fund development. Cardano does not have to rely on unsustainable donations or centralized entities deciding on funding. It will fund projects every 6 weeks and will just keep on chugging along forever. This will attract developers continuously. See Catalyst (link provided by bot in the comments). You tell me if this will bring network effect faster than some enthousiasts building on Ethereum.
IOG's other strategy for adoption is to bring economic identity to billions of people in developing countries. The idea behind this is that there will be less resistance than in developed countries to adopt the technology because these countries need it the most (most are unbanked and don't have financial services or good solutions for other problems like identification, land registry, etc. unlike people in the US or EU), don't have incumbents who will resist, have a young population who can adopt new technology more easily and it makes them able to compete in the global market. They also have the fastest growing economies and there is a lot more value to create. And when these countries adopt crypto and show the value it creates for them then developed countries will follow more easily. This will bring millions of users who will use Cardano for real problems they have not to gamble or be a "yield farmer", this is lasting real adoption. IOG has been working in Africa for 3-4 years and is really close to closing a multi million users deal in Ethiopia. See this latest interview with IOG's African Operations Director: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUPKtfTLvAk. And when Fortune 500 companies can easily reach all those millions of people in Africa with their products and services and can play in those markets then they have incentive to use Cardano. Again, you tell me if this is a better way to get adoption and network effect than whatever Ethereum is doing. You tell me if millions of real users is not going to create network effect.

Anyone who is not utterly biased will come to the conclusion that Cardano can challenge and pass Ethereum and Bitcoin. Keep using critical thinking. Think for yourself. Do your own research.

How To Value A Stock (From Someone Who Has Beaten The S&P Almost Every Year Since 2008)

I recently wrote this up for my friends who asked me how I do what I do. I figured I'd share it here. This is freely available to anyone who wants it, though please credit me if you simply copy/paste. Nothing here is novel, and can be done by anyone. I am not a financial professional, and the example given below is only Abbvie because I forgot that Abbott Labs was alphabetically the first in the S&P 500 when picking an example.

First, let’s come right out and say that if you do not have the time to do this, or do not find it enjoyable, just buy low-cost index funds that track either the total market or the S&P 500.
Second, let’s make an important distinction:
Investing – This is the act of purchasing assets for less than their intrinsic value. This PDF will focus on how to determine the intrinsic value of an asset that produces income. Note that for most assets, this is simply how much money you can extract from the asset over the period of time that you hold it for. There’s no other value than money in investing. Causes and emotions are what philanthropy is for.
Speculating – This is, at its core, the act of taking supply of an asset from the present to the future (by hoarding it). If there is more demand, lower supply, or both, this pays the speculator to take the asset from a period of low value to one of high value. It is not gambling, but is very difficult to do, since it entails taking on timing risk. It is not illegal, immoral, or impossible, but I have no special insight into it. I’ll leave it there.
Gambling – This looks a lot like speculation, but without any particular reason to believe the asset will be more valuable in the future. Speculators at least estimate the value of an asset to investors, as they are ultimately the end market for an asset. Do not gamble. Full stop.
Determining the intrinsic value of an asset
The value of an asset is simply the present value of all future income that asset can provide you. Since a dollar in five years is naturally less valuable than a dollar today, you have to discount future income against the opportunity cost of forgoing the dollars you invest today. When we get to the Present Value equation, this is represented by interest. It can also be thought of as the opportunity cost of investing in the asset instead of some other asset or simply consuming the dollars instead.
Here’s the actual math. Note that it’s not super hard, and while I will explain it, there are dozens of free websites that will quickly let you calculate this. The key phrase to Google would be “present value of a growing annuity calculator.”
PV = (C / i - G) * {1 – [(1 + G)/(1 + i)]^n}
PV = present value
C = cash flow per period
n = number of payments
i = interest rate
G = growth rate
The value for PV is your estimation of what the asset is worth today. If this ends up far higher than the market price, you are probably purchasing dollars for quarters. Avoid edge cases, as you are guessing about both the interest and growth rate.
C is the cash flow per period. If you have a high degree of confidence in the culture of the company and it has a long history of being good stewards of retained earnings, you can use the earnings per share (EPS). I usually use the dividend. It is impossible to fake or financially engineer a dividend, and requires less looking through financial documents to make sure it’s what it appears to be. But for, say, Apple or Microsoft or Chevron, feel free to use the EPS.
The number of payments is how many payments you expect while holding the asset. Dividends in American companies are typically quarterly (though some pay monthly or every six months, so check on that), so every multiple of four would represent one year if you choose to do it that way. If n = 16, then you’re expecting to hold the asset for 4 years. You can also put in a year’s worth of dividends and keep n = years rather than quarters.
I typically do n = 30, since 30 years is both a long time horizon that is realistic, and coincides when I will hit “retirement age.” You will have to decide how far ahead you’re planning. For most people, they are net purchasers of investments while working and net sellers while retired, so keep that in mind. Note that using years instead of quarters will lessen the amount of compounding, and will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong.
Interest is one of the two variables you have to guess at. Typically, one would put what you expect the actual long-run interest rate to average for this investment. Unfortunately, this is really difficult. Instead, I use a rate that represents my opportunity cost. There are any number of relatively safe ways to get a 5% yield on money invested, so I generally use i = 5% to represent that this asset has to perform better than a utility or telecom or real estate investment trust. Feel free to use what you feel is most appropriate for you. A higher interest rate will lower the value of the asset, so high-balling this number will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong.
The second variable you have to guess at is the growth rate. If you’re looking at the dividend, you want to know how fast to expect it to grow over time. If you’re using the EPS for C, then you want to see how quickly the total earnings are growing per share. This is extremely difficult to predict. I recommend taking the 5-year growth rate and halving it. Dividends will also be more predictable here, as most companies pay out far less than they make, which means even if EPS grows slowly, the dividend can still grow quickly for many years after a boom is over for the company. Note that lowering your estimate for G will lower the value of the asset, so low-balling this number will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong.
OK, so let’s walk through an example. I’ll use Abbvie, a biotech/pharmaceutical company. It has a quarterly dividend for the coming year of $1.30/share. Its dividend has an 18.5% growth rate over the last 5 years, and has grown it for the last 7 (it’s only been around for 8 years).
I assumed a growth rate (G) of 7%. I used $5.20 as the starting dividend this coming year and used years for my n = 30. As always, I used i = 5%.
This gave me an estimated present value of 1 share of Abbvie at $197.94. As of writing this, Abbvie shares are trading on the market at $103.43. This looks like a screaming buy, but first let’s look at why I have a high degree of confidence.
Note how the interest was higher than the going rate – I used my “low-risk alternative” as an opportunity cost. Abbvie has an extremely high rate of growth for its dividend, so I took less than half of its current rate. I also calculated annually rather than quarterly, which reduces the impact of high rates of growth. That’s three places in the equation where I consciously lowered the estimated value of a share of Abbvie, and it still came out as a strong buy – spending less about 50c for a dollar!
I do this because even if I’m wrong in some or all of my predictions, I now have quite a bit of room to be wrong and still make money. It’s like how you don’t walk next to a steep cliff, right? You should know how to walk where you want to, but there’s always the small chance something could cause you to slip or put a foot wrong. But if your plan is always to be 5 feet away from the edge of the cliff, the odds are that you’ll not go over the edge even if you fall down.
Many people feel this is over cautious. But let my portfolio speak for itself. I’ve beaten the S&P 500 index fund every year except one since 2008. My brokerage only keeps digital records back to Dec 2015, but the S&P 500 returned 101% since then – with dividends reinvested. My own portfolio has returned 256%.
So caution is still very high reward. In fact, if you just don’t lose, you’ll do better than the vast majority of professional money managers (about 85% of whom cannot even match the index funds).
Due diligence still has to occur
Now, we can’t just go straight out and buy Abbvie – though it’s a high profile company that receives lots of investor and regulator scrutiny so it’s less likely to have a landmine than most. Just to make sure, you’ll want to do the following before buying shares in this company:
-Check the debt load. If the debt is very high, has very high interest rates, or has a lot of it maturing very soon, then this is a yellow flag. It doesn’t mean don’t buy, but make sure you understand the structure of the company’s debt and make sure it won’t impair the company’s earnings going forward. This information is found on the balance sheet. Abbvie has $97.287 billion in long-term liabilities such as debt, pension liability, and deferred taxes. That’s a lot compared to their assets, but they also are owed some money, so it nets out about $90 billion.
-What’s the book value? Book value is fairly low at $8.65/share. This is pretty much the assets minus the liabilities. Abbvie is in a knowledge industry, however, so you shouldn’t expect their main assets to be physical capital that can be sold. It’s mostly organizational or human capital from their workforce, so this isn’t worrying. If Abbvie was, say, a retailer with stores and land and inventory, you’d want this to be much, much higher for the share price. There’s no easy way to judge this one, unfortunately, but it’s good to look it up and you’ll eventually get a feel for it. No red flags here.
-What are the catastrophic risks that even you or I could think of? For a company in the pharmaceutical space, the obvious answer is regulatory and political risk. Regulatory risk is just want it sounds like – more regulation which can be either costly to comply with or lower profits. This does have an upside, which is that it makes it harder for new competitors to enter a market, so I tend to be rather sanguine about regulatory risk. Political risk is much more severe. This is when politicians decide to either confiscate a company, target it specifically rather than the industry it’s in, or other ways in which the government is involved with taking rather than regulating. In Anglo countries (US/UK/Canada/Australia), the rule of law is typically strong enough that this doesn’t happen much, as there is usually some kind of due process. Places like China, Argentina, Russia, and the EU are much more likely to nationalize or otherwise capriciously penalize a company due to the prevailing political winds. Abbvie has a global footprint, but that also means it’s diversified against such risk. It’s headquartered in the US, so it’s unlikely someone will simply take the entire company.
-Payout ratio? Abbvie has a fairly high payout ratio (80% for the last completed fiscal year of 2019), as they have been aggressively growing the dividend. That’s another good reason to input a much lower G than the last few years. That being said, Abbvie has been around for 8 years (it was spun off of Abbott Labs) and has grown its dividend for the last 7 years and has announced it will this coming year as well. The payout ratio is pretty high, but not worrisome. It suggests a fairly mature company that’s now returning cash to shareholders. I’d say this is not nothing, but less than a yellow flag for me. Any company with 95%+ payout ratio is much more vulnerable to a dividend cut.
-Credit rating? S&P gives Abbvie a BBB+ grade for its unsecured debt. This is a slight downgrade because their balance sheet is currently digesting a big acquisition from early 2020 (Allergan). Moody’s gives it a Baa2 rating for unsecured debt. These are both good, solid, investment-grade credit ratings (if you were buying the bonds of Abbvie). This looks great.
-Does it need a genius? Some companies run on all cylinders because they have a genius at the helm – often a founder. But what you want is a company any dummy can run, because sooner or later any dummy will. Don’t plan to invest long-term in companies that require skilled management. Abbvie is fairly diversified and has an OK pipeline of research. They also can buy little biotech companies that invent something but can’t navigate the regulations to bring it to market. So pondering giants are actually a good thing. Means they’re hard to break.
So, given that there was nothing obviously treacherous in our basic due diligence, and the extreme discount at which our example is selling for, this would be one you might want to buy! This is what I do for all the companies I invest in.
Notice that there is no story, no excitement, no narrative, no counting on good or bad management. Emotion has no place in investing. You also will notice that we took every opportunity to reduce the risk of losing your capital by always sandbagging the estimated value of the company. You never want to pick up nickels in front of a steamroller. You want the investment to be so obvious it hits you in the face like a baseball bat. If you’re ever on the fence, don’t do it. You don’t have to hit home runs – just don’t strike out.
You can be even more conservative in your estimates than I am. If, for instance, you used 5% growth rate for Abbvie’s dividend, you’d still get a present value of $148.57/share vs the current market price of $103.43. Similarly, you could use a higher interest rate, which would also lower the estimated present value.
You may have to do this calculation with more companies to find one to buy, but even in a very expensive market like today’s, there is always an opportunity. You don’t even have to look at little companies. There’s around 500 companies in the S&P – just start with “A” and work your way through all of them.
A quick note about further reading: I very strongly urge most people to actually read as little as possible on this subject once they get the basics. That’s not because there’s not more to learn, but because I would sadly say the majority of what I see and hear is actively bad advice. But if you do want to keep up with financial news and books and chat boards, the best thing to do is find out what the historical returns of the person giving advice are.
Since WWII, the long-run return on the S&P 500 has generally been just a bit shy of 10% per year. If someone can’t beat that, year-in-and-year-out, then their advice is worthless. As in, you don’t want to accidentally absorb it. This is, unfortunately, true for most professionals. Over the last 15 years, 92.2% of actively managed funds have underperformed a simple S&P 500 index fund (and they charge you fees for the privilege). Beware anyone selling something. The advice here is given freely
That’s why I made a point of mentioning that I have and regularly outperform the standard fund almost every year. Granted, I don’t have many of the regulatory restrictions a public fund would have, but it shows how useful the advice I’m giving here is. You don’t need anything fancy. You don’t need anything high risk. I’ve done this through two deep recessions and the longest bull market in history.
If you want to learn more about investing in general and where I learned how to do this, you can read Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor. It was written in the 1930s, so much of the technical information is out of date. Skip over that and just read it for the concepts.
Even easier reading is to go online to Berkshire Hathaway’s website and pull Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger’s annual letter to shareholders. Almost all of them have something useful in them and don’t make you do equations.
I am available for questions in the comments

Why Dogecoin to $1 is Only a Matter of Time

Why Dogecoin to $1 is Only a Matter of Time

The Bubble
It’s February of 2021, and let’s be completely honest: We’re in a bubble. It’s kind of like 1999 but not the same. In 1999, interest rates were much higher. Today, they are nearly zero. In some countries, they are even negative. From a long-term perspective, this is very bad.
The Federal Reserve is completely to blame for this. Their policies are entirely reckless, and officials refuse to acknowledge what is going on here. The Coronavirus hysteria caused by the media and enabled by officials made the crash last summer the worst man-made disaster in the history of our financial system. The Great Depression was caused by over-speculation and a lack of regulation in an emerging financial system. The Great Recession was caused by greed and fraud (strangely, no one is in jail for this). This market collapse was caused by elected officials and the fed, who got trigger-happy and cut rates to zero back in the spring of 2020.
Whatever we wind up calling the burst of this bubble is to be determined. It will, however, be entirely manmade because the fed refuses to acknowledge the speculative behavior currently going on in SPACs, Cryptos, Penny Stocks, and anything else that serves as a legal Ponzi scheme for inflating the bubble. Even real, dividend-paying stocks have gotten way overvalued in some sectors. Also, since the fed has no plans of raising rates within the next two years (so they say for now, at least), if you’re searching for yield, you have nowhere else to look than the equities markets or one of these legalized forms of Ponzi schemes. It’s extremely unfair to conservative or retired investors looking for an honest return on their savings. This all is actually why it is a great time to look at Dogecoin, as I will get to in a moment. So long as rates are near zero, the bubble will continue to go on for longer and longer. And while it continues, people will constantly look for the next big thing.
For How Long?
Now, this may sound all doom and gloom, but that’s not my point. One day the bubble will burst, but I’m not making a prediction of when that will happen. Anyone making up dates for when the bubble will burst is either clueless or a con artist. No one knows when this bubble will burst. It could be weeks, months, or even years. One thing is for sure, the bubble will not burst just because things are overvalued. That’s not how bubbles work.
There needs to be a catalyst to burst the bubble. A major military conflict. An unexpected move or comment by the fed (raising rates, calling out the bubble for what it is, etc.). Another nationwide lockdown. I can go on with examples, but a little selloff here and there (August 2020) that causes the financial media to lose its mind is not enough. Just because you claim the bubble is bursting isn’t enough either. If you follow the media, you will get burned over and over again. That’s how it works. They want you to go to their sponsors for help, and once they burn you (sell you gold, overcharge you for poor investments, etc), you’ll come back to them hoping to figure things out. It’s a shell game. When the bubble burst, it will happen extremely fast and unexpectedly. There’s nothing wrong with playing the bubble, but you need to be mindful of when it ends because once the music stops, there will be a mad rush for the exits. You don’t want to be stuck holding the bag because everything will get crushed when the bubble burst. Even the blue-chip stocks that pay solid dividends will get hammered.
Fundamentals Don’t Matter (For Now)
In this bubble environment, fundamentals don’t make sense and, quite frankly, they don’t matter. You can argue back and forth all day long about whether something has a practical future or whether something is overvalued. I’m not here to do that about Dogecoin, Bitcoin, or any other crypto. The same could be said about Penny Stocks right now. (Hint: virtually all of these companies are way overvalued). You can find tons of articles of that nature, and I’m not likely to change your preconceived notions anyway. If we look at all the irrational bubbles that have occurred lately, you are a complete fool if you believe that TSLA or BTC is worth nearly a trillion dollars. It’s worth nowhere near that valuation.
How do I determine what something is worth, and who do I mean? It is called the market cap. In layman’s terms, that is where you take all the stock shares and multiply it by the share price. And I’m not recommending buying or selling TSLA or BTC, I’m just pointing out that these valuations are absurd. Does that mean they will not pass 1 trillion dollars? Of course not. There’s a very reasonable chance they do pass a $1 trillion market cap. That sounds absurd to write but it’s true. When the bubble bursts, you better believe fundamentals will be back in play. This disconnect can’t last forever. But it can go on for a while. And while it lasts, we all want to make some money
A Quick Word About ALL Cryptos
While I don’t believe Cryptocurrencies are going anywhere (as in, people will always buy and sell them), I also do not see any APPLICABLE future in them other than trading with other people. In fact, the biggest use I see of Cryptocurrencies is for illegal and untraceable transactions. The government will do all they can over the next several years to bring in lost tax revenue and track transactions better, but that’s the extent to which Cryptos will have relevance. How do I know this? Because the federal reserve, which is backed by the taxing authority of the US Government and the might of the US military, isn’t about to let some alternative currency usurp the US dollar. How do you think we can afford to provide all this government stimulus to fight Covid? If you think about this, you will see why other countries are much worse off. They must play by our rules, while we get to export our inflation to other countries because they must use the USD to buy commodities on the international exchanges (look at what happened when Saddam tried to circumvent this). If they print more money, their currency gets devalued. That’s why as bad as things look, relatively speaking, the US isn’t in terrible shape compared to the rest of the world.
If your financial future is so married to Bitcoin, ask yourself this: what happens if your account gets hacked? Who will you call? Who will make you whole again? If you have a brokerage account with legitimate stocks, there are regulations in place. There is the SIPC which protects again brokerage failure. With Bitcoin, you are completely gambling. This lack of regulation and lack of price stability means that there is no viable path to Bitcoin being a legitimate currency. Does it mean people can buy and sell it? Of course. But if you are in the cult of believing that Bitcoin is the future world reserve currency, you need to get your head examined.
Gold and Silver con artists have been trying for decades for people to get on this alternative currency train. At least gold and silver have some practical industrial applications. And hundreds of years of history on its side. Crypto isn’t anything but something people agree upon as having value. Why do I point this out? Because the one thing you need to do is separate yourself from what you think you know about Crypto and Blockchain, etc. While it all sounds cool and revolutionary, it really doesn’t matter. The US government could easily create their own form of Crypto that gives them more control. The decentralized part just doesn’t jive with our current global hegemony. If you don’t understand this, you should think more and read less. Once you accept this, you can start to see all Crypto as fundamentally worth the same: virtually nothing. The technicals, however, are why we want to look at Dogecoin.
Relative Valuation of Dogecoin
Now that you understand a little more background into where we are, I believe Dogecoin is extremely undervalued. Why? It’s simple. Relative valuation. This is one of the easiest and most efficient ways to compare investments. Ok, so maybe this isn’t really investing anymore; it’s gambling. Still, we can apply the same concept. Imagine two companies: they are in the same industry and have similar margins, earnings, growth prospects, etc. One company is valued at $50 billion and costs $120 per share, and one is valued at $85 billion and costs $80 per share. Which one would you invest in? Of course, you would invest in the one that is worth $50 billion at $120 per share. The cost per share means absolutely nothing. It is psychological.
Now, you say Dogecoin isn’t on par with Bitcoin and that where I’m going with this isn’t a fair comparison. Go back and read the last section. That’s why I wrote about the practical applications of Cryptocurrencies in general. None of that matters. The only thing that matters is the general sentiments shared by people that buy and believe in Cryptocurrency. So, let’s look at the current valuations:
Bitcoin – Price $40,500, Market Cap $755B (estimated as of 2-6-21)
Dogecoin – Price $.05, Market Cap $4.4B (estimated as of 2-6-21)
(Source: Yahoo Finance)
Now, I’m not saying Dogecoin is worth what Bitcoin is. I’m not even saying it's worth half or a third of Bitcoin. Who really knows? No one does. You certainly cannot say for certain that one is better than another. One is more “established” and has more name recognition. What I am saying is this: if Dogecoin goes to $1, it will have a market cap of just over $85 billion. Even at Bitcoin’s current market cap, that’s just over 1/10 of its value. And that isn’t even pricing in more appreciation of Bitcoin’s value over time. This means I see tons of room for Dogecoin to run. (I know some will mention dilution via minting of new coins, but that’s another discussion and not entirely relevant to the points I am trying to make in this piece.)
Could Dogecoin match Bitcoin? That sounds absurd, but let’s look just for fun: if Dogecoin were to have the same market cap as Bitcoin, that means it would have a current price of $8.55. So, what am I saying here? You must know the range of possibilities (within reason, if that even exists anymore) before you start thinking about price targets. To say Dogecoin is going to $100 is just absurd; things need to be put in the proper context.
Why Dogecoin?
Using relative valuation, I believe you could make a case for any Crypto. Will they all run to Bitcoin’s level? Of course not. The last question is why Dogecoin? This is the most important one that we have to answer before deciding on buying Dogecoin. The answer is simple: hype and name recognition. If I look at the most valuable cryptocurrencies by market cap, Dogecoin is number 12. I have taken an informal survey of probably 100 people over the last two weeks. I showed them the top 15 Cryptocurrencies by market cap to see which they were familiar with: Stellar, Binance Coin, Cardano, Polkadot, XRP . . . almost all of these were completely unheard of. But, somehow, they have valuations of 2-3 times Dogecoin.
Dogecoin has a few things going for it. First, hype. Elon Musk and many other prominent celebrities are pilling in. Mark Cuban has said he’d buy it over a lottery ticket. That alone can help aid a very quick lift off. Second, the name Dogecoin is very easy to remember and a trendy thing. What the heck is Cardano anyway? XRP? I mistakenly called it XPR before I edited this piece. And if you are still hung up on the practical use of Dogecoin or other Cryptos, you are missing the point of this piece entirely. Look at the story behind Bitcoin. An anonymous person online created a decentralized platform for money movement or something like that. What? How in the world did that idea ever take traction? It’s just like people online arguing over which Penny Stock is the next big thing. Neither person is right, but the perception is really all that matters.
Third, stimulus checks will be hitting within weeks or months. This naturally promotes price inflation when people have more dollars chasing few goods. People will inevitably pile into whatever they think is the next great thing. Dogecoin has momentum right now. And this brings me to number four.
Fourth, and perhaps most importantly, FOMO is very powerful right now. There are people all over the world that know people who have won big money in this bubble. Penny stocks, GameStop, Bitcoin, and many others that you can name. How many people do you personally know that have won big in the lottery? Probably none. This is a unique time in history. People have won big in this market and are looking for the next thing.
Dogecoin is something that could pick up steam quickly. It could blow up overnight. It may not, and that is the risk you take. At the end of the day, it’s just money that you can always make more of. Life-changing money is worth the risk when you find the right risk-reward ratio.
Do your due diligence, but also think ahead to a scenario that you could imagine. Would you be that surprised if Dogecoin reached $1? And if it did, would you be surprised if it started running towards multiple dollars? $1 is a psychological number that typically leads to a further breakout. The current market cap suggests this is all very possible. Now imagine getting in at four or five cents.
Disclosure: Long Dogecoin with Diamond Hands. No positions in any other things mentioned. -BJ

@TraceSafeTech and Why We Love it - written by @mrdotto5 @stockfamgroup $TSF $UTOLF

TraceSafe Inc. (TSF in Canada, UTOLF in U.S. with OTCQB listing in near future)
Industry: Real-Time Location Services (including Contact Tracing)
Notable Management:
Mr. Wayne Lloyd (C.E.O. of TraceSafe)
Dr. Dennis Kwan (C.E.O of TraceSafe Technologies),
Why We Love it:
By the time I finished my DD, and I did quite a bit of it, TraceSafe was an auto-buy for me and a pleasure to write about. But before diving in, I had questions; plenty of them. I believe that investors should enter every opportunity with skepticism. It gives you a clearer head and reduces potentially dangerous levels of FOMO (fear of missing out). FOMO can drive valuations of stocks to scary levels and it rarely ends well, as retail buyers like you and me buy the hype on a company while bigger players exit their positions.
Smaller growth-oriented companies can often have new, exciting technology that captures the imagination of the market, but smart investors, retail or otherwise, always look for one key milestone before buying in: validation. Without proof that a company is successfully penetrating their market, you’re buying the idea instead of the reality.
When I first looked at Tracesafe in the autumn of 2020, I was impressed by the technology they were bringing to market with an experienced management team. But I didn’t invest my hard-earned money because I needed to see real partnerships with big-market companies. Cutting edge technology, for all its impressiveness, isn’t worth much to a company without the means to monetize it. If you’re buying the idea, you’re making a leap of faith, and that is a little too close to gambling for me.
So much has happened since then that the leap of faith has become an open door to walk through. Validation is here.
But before we get to all that, let’s set the foundation, because none of this would have been possible without the management team, which is one of the most impressive parts to the story. The C.E.O., Dr. Dennis Kwan, and The C.T.O. Suresh Singamsetty, have been developing technology companies in the wearables space for years. Dr. Kwan co-founding Martian Watches, the first ever voice-enabled smartwatch. He was also V.P. of a Bluetooth company that was acquired for $160 million and he personally owns more than ten patents in wireless/bluetooth technologies. Mr. Singamsetty, the software expert, was with Dr. Kwan at Martian Watches. He owns more than 20 patents himself. The third member of the team, Gord Zeilstra, is another massive successful industry veteran. His specialty is driving companies’ global sales footprint. His success in the building of Monster.com and S.A.P. into global brands is an exciting indicator of where TraceSafe is headed.
So what about validation? Let’s begin with its partnership with Tritan Software. You probably haven’t heard of them, but I have no doubt you have heard of Carnival Cruises, Norwegian Cruise Lines, and Royal Caribbean. Tritan is the health and safety software provider for 95% of the entire global cruise line industry. I’ll put that in word form to give it the attention it deserves: NINETY FIVE PERCENT of the global cruise line industry.
Tritan is responsible for collecting, storing and securing the privacy of health information for all passengers, in addition to quality and incident management and a host of other software solutions. The CDC (Centre for Disease Control and Prevention) will most certainly have compliance requirements for resumption of sailing operations and Tritan knows this, which is why they are acting now, and acting swiftly. (Countless other companies approached Tritan, but they chose the experience and superior security of TraceSafe). The partnership was only recently announced and it remains to be seen how entwined the two companies will become, but contact tracing is only the tip of the iceberg (sorry, not the best cruise line analogy). For a clearer picture of the entire iceberg, we can look to Walt Disney’s iconic theme parks.
It is no secret that Disney theme parks have always placed a premium focus on customer experience, and one of the most effective ways they achieve this is through the “Magic Band”, which is essentially a wearable device that customers use to enter the park, unlock their hotel rooms, and buy food and merchandise. A one stop shop on your wrist.
This is where the cruise industry is headed. With a wearable on your wrist, you can enjoy all the same conveniences as the Magic Band combined with a contact tracing and safety monitoring device, all in one device.
So, that’s it? The cruise lines?
Even if it were the only partnership in the pipeline, it may have been enough to turn TraceSafe into a major global player, but it is just one of many projects, both ongoing and in the future. But even greater validation was announced just today (making me do some quick edits to this story)
TraceSafe, just today, announced a potentially game-changing purchase order. The agreement is to supply a global Tier 1 semiconductor manufacturer with 60,000 wearable units to be used across their enterprise. Professional services network Deloitte is managing the implementation of TraceSafe’s “next generation” of wearable products, which can be processed and paired within seconds, compared to about 3 minutes per device of other companies in the industry.
To give you an idea of the magnitude of this agreement, Dr. Kwan is quoted “This is one of the largest deployments of its kind anywhere in the world and we are very proud to be working with technology innovators to deliver a product so important in enhancing the health and safety of their workforce.”
I will forgive you if you stop reading now. The above agreement, combined with the cruise line partnership, is honestly enough for me and for many investors, but for those who stick around, the story actually gets considerably better.
The total wearable market is projected to reach $60 billion, and a large part of this will focus on corporate safety. In this way, Tracesafe has a bit of an advantage, as the company has a presence in Southeast Asia. You will remember that long before we realized the impact of the pandemic, several Asian countries were already scrambling to deal with the first wave. Since that time, we have dealt with each wave several months behind Southeast Asian countries. This time lapse has given TraceSafe a window into near-future conditions in the Western world. The best example of this is in Singapore, where they are closer to emerging from lockdown than we are in North America. Singapore has become the proving ground for TraceSafe technology., and it has gone perfectly. TraceSafe is being worn on construction sites for Boustead, a massive Singaporean construction company. This partnership has not only led to improvements in safety and security at Boustead, but it has also won TraceSafe the Singaporean National Innovation Award.
Closer to home, TraseSafe partnered with The World Junior Hockey Championships in Vancouver, Canada in December. The tournament was essentially a bubble-event that was completed safely using TraceSafe technology. T.T.G, the sponsorship firm that organized the event (and, incidentally, was instrumental in bringing The Winter Olympics to Vancouver in 2010) was impressed. So was Telus, the tournament sponsor. The future is very bright in venue tracing, with fans itching to return but needing a safe and proven way to do it.
There remains one incredibly large catalyst for growth, and some may find it the most interesting of all, but before we get to that (cough, Airbeam, cough), let’s quickly dispel any lingering doubts you may have:
Aren’t those wrist bands uncomfortable and a nuisance?
This is another part of the reason Tritan and others have chosen TraceSafe. Recall that two of the management team are pioneers of the wearable space with over 30 patents between them. The TraceSafe product has a battery that long outlasts any other in the industry and it is also incredibly lightweight and unobtrusive. Added to this is the
extended product line, with tags and credit-card style devices.
Discounting everything else in the pipeline, is anybody seriously going to get back on a cruise ship after all that has happened? Will the return to cruise lines be slow?
The high amount of bookings for the second half of 2021 says “no”, and so do experts in the field, who state that cruise line demand is higher than most other industry segments. Once people are vaccinated, the industry will return in a big way. Tritan understands this; hence the quick action.
But what about privacy? Isn’t this just another way for companies or governments to spy on us?
I honestly wondered about this because it seemed an obvious question, but the answer makes complete sense. If the TraceSafe software were downloaded onto your phone, perhaps there would be more skepticism on my part. We all value privacy and bristle when it is infringed upon. But these devices are only work-site specific, meaning that the wearables (and software embedded in them) are separate from your personal devices and they do not function once you leave the site. They only ensure health and safety through workplace tracking.
Aren’t margins higher on software than hardware? Will this make enough profit?
The answers to these questions vary, but they all begin with “yes”. Margins are indeed higher on software, and TraceSafe in fact is currently selling 50/50 between hardware and software (cloud computing), with a focus on moving to 20/80 in the coming months. The cloud-based real-time monitoring system does not, in fact, need an internet connection (which I’d say is important when you’re out at sea) as it is a bluetooth device. No user information is stored on the device and it has medical-grade privacy/security (remember the company’s origins). The administration functions are user-friendly.
What about the revenues?
Whatever exciting news you may hear about a company, it is always more reassuring to see actual revenues pouring in, even so soon after developing a contact tracing solution. TraceSafe could be forgiven for only being a quarter or two away from meaningful revenues, but luckily for investors, this isn’t the case. Based on video interviews in January, the company expects to continue their 100%-200% year over year growth, which puts them somewhere between a projection of $20-$32 million for 2021. Although it should be noted that I’m extrapolating these numbers by following growth patterns from previous quarters, this DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY NEW PARTNERSHIPS, INCLUDING THE AGREEMENT ANNOUNCED TODAY! (Oops, sorry. I seem to have left caps lock on there!).
And then there is the share float. Fully diluted, after all outstanding shares incentive-based options, the total share count will be under 70 million. This is a very small float, which appeals to most investors, as a company in a growth phase will have fewer obstacles to share price growth.
What about data? Data monetization is big business.
TraceSafe will have the ability to monetize data from their cloud-based software at some point in this process, although that shouldn’t be confused with personal data, which would never be shared, obviously. But corporations looking for trends in safety and efficiency would most definitely benefit from the analysis of general workforce data.
What else am I missing?
This is a bonus for the company that cannot be overstated. Airbeam. Ever heard of it? Before you read the bonus paragraph below, note that TraceSafe has invested into Airbeam and owns an impressive 9.9 million shares. Ok, go ahead and read about Airbeam now (Thanks to Stock Fam discord user “Aberdenov” for the assistance)
The 5G revolution is upon us. This revolution will be in the tens of TRILLIONS of dollars. Airbeam will be a player in 5G critical infrastructure. Their 5G micro cell network utilizing AI/ML with EDGE computing on the 60Ghz band will be a catalyst for smart cities enabling such things as autonomous vehicles.
Airbeam will also be deploying wireless cameras with unlimited storage and smart displays for advertising. The company is led by former executive and head of research and development at Qualcomm, Dr Karim Arabi, and along with Stockwell Day and his political connections, the future looks bright for the company. Airbeam's last private raise was back in 2019 with a valuation of 97 million. Since then they have gained traction with pilot projects in America, Qatar and the Philippines. An IPO is expected sometime in 2021 with a far higher valuation.
TraceSafe has openly talked about increasing shareholder value after the Airbeam IPO, including a potential dividend, which is unheard of for a growth tech company.
So you see how skepticism can lead to the DD that you need to uncover a company like TraceSafe. It has the management team, tech cutting-edge technology, the validation, the contracts, the blue-sky opportunity of an industry that will be a part of our lives, and an incredible piece of foresight to buy in early to a very hotly anticipated IPO.
Just another Stock Fam favourite! Thanks to expert poster Jethro and all the members of the TraceSafe channel for their relentless DD. Come join the discussion!
Follow me on twitter MrDotto5

Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis

NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.

From a Publisher re: Kickstarter Costs in Small Campaigns

Hi boardgames, I'm Zack Hiwiller. I've been posting here a long time, so I hope you will excuse one self-promoting post that has some honest discussion in it.
This week, I launched my first board game Kickstarter for Scribbletown, a tight, thinky roll-and-write game that I first signed to a publisher in 2016(!) but which got caught up in some unrelated business turmoil. The rights reverted back to me this past year, so I'm taking the dive into self-publishing on my own.
If you would like to check out the Kickstarter, it is live right now. There are links for the TTS module and a free print-and-play sample in the campaign. I certainly won't mind if you go check it out. But that's not why I'm here. There have been threads every few days about the rising costs overall of Kickstarters and I want to see if I can help shed some light.
Picture by Aspie Gamer Girl
I want to talk a little bit about the costs involved in designing and publishing a game.
Scribbletown's price is $35. It's a price I came to after a lot of work and deliberation. I knew I wanted big, etched dice from the first prototype I made. Since playing Let's Make a Bus Route, I knew I wanted everyone to have laminated boards. Since playing On Tour, I knew I wanted to support more than 4 players out of the box. These production goals rise the cost significantly and allow me to at least bill the game as "deluxe", but the quality of components aren't the problem.
Print Run Sizes: There are tiers of publishers in terms of what size print runs they can support. When everyone was freaking out about Stonemaier not printing enough Wingspan copies upon release, that first run was something like 10,000 copies. Wingspan wouldn't even be a big production run by the standards of the biggest hits in the industry. It's impossible to know what the sales are of other games, but for the names of games most of you recognize, that wouldn't be an outrageously-sized print run.
Most manufacturers will not take a print run under 1,000 copies. It isn't worth the fixed cost of creating dies and such to do so. The smaller the print run, the higher the unit cost. If I were able to print 2,000 copies of Scribbletown, I could do so around 25% cheaper than 1,000 copies. Additionally, consider all of the costs of design, development, art, advertising (oh God the marketing costs), and other business expenses are all fixed so on a per-unit basis they are higher when you print fewer. It makes games with smaller print runs much more expensive to make than would be seen just by looking at the component costs.
Consider that not having a built-in audience from previous projects mean that new publishers have to spend more on marketing to be seen. My costs for marketing have exceeded my cost for art.
Kickstarter Inertia: Let's say I could get 2,000 backers. (Fingers crossed). I couldn't go in and retroactively lower the cost of pledges by 25%. Kickstarter doesn't allow for that(*). So instead, I use the economies of scale to produce stretch goals (and hopefully bank some profit that will cover unexpected costs). But being successful at the original (higher) price lets publishers know that the market will bear that price, so there is no incentive to lower the price even at higher print run volumes unless they believe there was untapped consumer surplus at lower prices.
I think you see this in the exploding prices for minis games. They have enormous fixed costs (in comparison), so the price at the minimum order number is high. But when those campaigns go gangbusters, it just proves to everyone else that people will pay those high prices. The cycle gets vicious.
A handful of folks have pledged a dollar just to comment on my campaign or message me that they would never pay $35 for a roll-and-write, regardless of the components or complexity. Then they cancel their dollar pledge. I get it. Things can only be priced at what the market will bear. Money is always tight for everyone. But we don't know what the market will bear in advance, so you base it off of the cost of doing business and the price of games with a similar weight, complexity, and audience. I'm hoping people will see Scribbletown and compare it to medium-light and mid-weight Euros rather than the filler fare they currently see roll-and-writes as. In that case, $35 is a steal.
Shipping Costs: I could make the game with cheaper (and fewer) components and lower the price marginally, but I can't lower the shipping costs significantly. Even if I were to lower the weight by 25%, shipping wouldn't get 25% cheaper. Did you know that the costs of shipping have gone up _significantly_ in the last year? Most campaigns are already charging less for shipping than the actual total costs of shipping and handling and just absorbing the cost as part of the unit cost.
And psychologically, there is more pause given for a $20 game with $15 shipping than there would be with a $35 game with $15 shipping, even if they end up being a similar weight/volume. Lowering the overall price makes the shipping look _more_ expensive because of the ratio of price to shipping. I suspect it makes people want to wait for a retail release that may never come so that they can avoid the shipping costs.
My goal for this project is to break even and pay myself $0/hour for the hundreds of hours of design and production prep (and sleepless nights) that has gone into this project. Why? Because it will help me build for whatever the next project will be. I'm hoping to make this work long-term. But even with Kickstarter, with the ease of use of the global supply chain, with middleware services and etc that make it possible for anyone to do this, the momentum issues of starting from a small audience put new publishers behind the eight ball and make just surviving look greedy.
TL;DR:
- The more copies you can print, the lower the costs, the more units you can amortize fixed costs over and the cheaper it can be for consumers.
- New publishers without a built-in audience can't print large numbers, so their costs will be necessarily higher per-unit.
- Kickstarter doesn't allow you to change prices mid-campaign, so a campaign will likely charge whatever they think they can make do with at the smallest possible print run, even if they end up having a larger print run. This creates a cycle where that price becomes the norm even if the publisher benefits from economies of scale.
- It's hard for new and small publishers. Be kind. We know you are price sensitive. If we have success, then some day we can get into distribution and you can benefit from the scale that allows us to make games for stores that don't charge shipping. But we have to get there first.
If you want to take a gamble on a new game, try supporting independent publishers. Your marginal dollar means so much more to us than it does to those who can afford big print runs.
- Shameless end plug: Scribbletown on Kickstarter. :-) Feel free to AMA. I may write about the costs of pitching designs to publishers versus self-publishing sometime in the future.
Another picture by Aspie Gamer Girl. Check out her channel on Youtube for content in both English and Spanish. She's great.
(*) I recently pledged in a campaign that offered discounts during the KS by providing credits in the pledge manager. That's an interesting approach and I hope to see it more often in the future.

THE NEXT TESLA, and the industry leader in Elon Musks projected hot sector

DD on $STPK
Stem Inc. ($STPK) is an energy storage company focusing on battery storage systems, network integration, and battery optimization. They brand themselves as "the first pure play smart energy storage company to go public" - a lot of buzz words I know but bear with me
First, let's take a moment to quickly understand how battery storage works. Battery storage is a type of energy storage power station that uses a group of batteries to store electrical energy. This is primarily used in the renewables space with solar and wind energy. In recent years battery storage (and in part renewable energy) hasn't seen the exponential growth that many are expecting due to limitations in battery technology and high development costs.
This being said, recent developments of battery tech and reduction of costs have now made battery storage much more feasible at the commercial / industrial level. Battery storage still has ways to go in the residential space due to risks that come with it.
https://preview.redd.it/xy2e3iml1yb61.png?width=2230&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8c903a5ac25ef5d70ad9993880886010df73d32
While battery storage has improved, it will not be stand alone solution for many years to come because it simply isn't feasible with our global energy infrastructure. Battery storage will work with our interconnected grid to reduce imbalances between energy demand and energy production.
Ok, so now that we know how it works, what does the market look like?

All major global markets are forecasted to double over the next decade
Over the next decade, the US market is expected to grow at ~45% CAGR and the global market is expected to grow 31% CAGR
Future tailwinds with improvements in the regulatory environment

https://preview.redd.it/7x98ssvk1yb61.png?width=2236&format=png&auto=webp&s=94e525ba6bab348a408ec2b59297d03cbcf5b896
Great, so how is $STPK revolutionizing this space? They are doing so by providing a "one stop shop" solution for utility companies. Stem's solution can provide integrations with hardware (batteries) and the grid (network), while also using an AI powered software solution to optimize their energy storage.
https://preview.redd.it/ljxci0lu3yb61.png?width=2208&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2728140badcbc979109ce3c895f65d3e6057b26
https://preview.redd.it/aey2b68o1yb61.png?width=2230&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ddf98e04ea46187afb12cfe9ecf6c0004398908
https://preview.redd.it/uwb4oxro1yb61.png?width=2232&format=png&auto=webp&s=257a97226376bbefff6690c0973ce743f2600abf
Their solution could possible replace other pure play companies in the value chain which is key.
Interesting, so let's move on to their AI software called Athena. Athena is an operating system for energy distribution and storage systems, collecting big data that enables customers to alternate between onsite generation, grid power or battery power.
https://preview.redd.it/gdctb7fs1yb61.png?width=2230&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9d3265db7fc1978a56bece0b8cac1385bac36f1
https://preview.redd.it/q2zwy3xs1yb61.png?width=2228&format=png&auto=webp&s=d085b8a522d0a57dd74ffc7cccb9f6439f7397bc
Athena is a HUGE part of their value proposition and truly could be revolutionary. It is a large part of their moat, as they have 24 issued patents for it (so no competitor can replicate it).
Now, let's move onto their financials. First, it's important to understand they have a hardware and software business

Increased rev from $17 mil to $33 mil YoY, expected to increase to $147 mil in 2021
81% CAGR from 2020-2026
Gross margins have hovered around 12-18% since 2018 but expected to increase to 40%+ by 2026
90% of forecasted 2021 revs are from closed executed contracts (not pipeline!) -> underpromising and overdelivering
Software revenue expected to account for 30% of total revenues by 2026
- $14 mil in 2020 -> $240 mil by 2026 Yeah https://preview.redd.it/9mzekzoz1yb61.png?width=2224&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b5311875074372dab260a03471227a503c31641

https://preview.redd.it/cdlzxpc02yb61.png?width=2232&format=png&auto=webp&s=044fb3ba5feb529dc12170ef504ba14a15729ec6
https://preview.redd.it/pxaa5v442yb61.png?width=2230&format=png&auto=webp&s=80ecb213e8d26b398ad1838a3cb610ff93ec4be8
https://preview.redd.it/xbvb10w42yb61.png?width=2232&format=png&auto=webp&s=7864d71303378bbb5c43e5620b16f49047d5f1eb
A majority of their revenues are from their hardware segment but it will be interesting to see how Athena contributes to their financials moving forward. They need to execute yes, but I'm confident they can do so given it has been in development for 5+ years, and they have continuously improved upon due to years of data collection. They might have used this time to validate Athena with their customers and now feel comfortable scaling it exponentially.
Lastly, I was curious to see how they compare to Tesla as well all know a large part of Tesla's valuation is their energy business. Interestingly enough, they actually use batteries from Tesla, Samsung, and Panasonic. Additionally, they have a partnership with Tesla.
https://preview.redd.it/0xxgetre2yb61.png?width=1376&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb1046d1c13b9ea7363515171e0986eae45fbd0e
https://preview.redd.it/ntwpsv5f2yb61.png?width=1412&format=png&auto=webp&s=e2df40a848e64ddf9b8d0c78e58db4a8cecd5ac8
https://preview.redd.it/xnedmc2m3yb61.png?width=2228&format=png&auto=webp&s=647ee6e22a6a59b598782bed6566f113f0dd0b86
In my opinion, this is an extremely attractive play in the renewables space as it is one of the pick and shovel plays in the space. If any of you are interested, my investment thesis is finding the best pick and shovel plays in emerging industries, such as renewable energy, sports betting / gambling, genomics etc. You can follow me on twitter for other DDs I have done.
TLDR: Stem is a leading player in the energy storage market as they have solutions to address all major aspects of the value chain. More specifically:

Large TAM + strong macro tailwinds
- ~$1.2 trillion in new revenue opportunities for integrated storage expected to be deployed by 2050
- Battery storage capacity expected to increase by 25x by 2030
Market leader with best in class technology
- 900+ systems operating or contracted with Athena
- 75% market share in CA BTM storage market, largest in the US
- First mover AI platform that operates with 40+ utilities, 5 grid operators and over 16MM runtime hours
Highly visible growth
- Recurring revenue streams provide strong financial position to accelerate growth
- Revenues projected to grow at ~51% CAGR from 2021 to 2026

Hope y'all enjoy! Long $STPK
Now for the Elon Musk fanboys/people who don’t like to read.
https://youtu.be/JY1Fymr9lHQ
Elon musk said the 3 most important things are EV, solar energy, AND ENERGY STORAGE (watch vid above at 0:30)
ELON MUSK is building the batteries to store renewable energy, $STPK uses there software on Tesla’s batteries/and other batteries that makes them smart batteries
$STPK has more sales then Tesla/any other competitor (leading the market) by using third party batteries from Tesla. So to have more sales it must mean there software is pretty damn good as there literally using batteries from others.
This industry is going to be huge, we need to store renewable energy as the sun doesn’t shine at night, and wind isn’t always blowing.
This stock is a baby 4bill market cap, has the most sales in the industry that’s expected to 25x (over 1.2 trillion, YET $STPK is leading the industry), and patented software with years worth of data
$STPK YOLO FUCK TON OF SHARES
Edit: 🚀 🚀

Video Game Review: 1-800-SUPER

1-800-SUPER takes place in the moderately nearish future of 2056. You have recently been hired by a hotline for superheroes and supervillains. You got hired thanks to your stunning, though typo filled, application...and because nobody else applied. The hotline has been redirected to your cellphone. You will help guide the heroes and villains. However, you must also mind the balance between good and evil. Maxing out the meter on either end will result in bad things. If there is too much good, then the city will be turn into a surveillance police state where the superheroes rule as autocratic dictators. If, on the other hand, there is too much evil, then the city will descend into anarchy, and the villains will have free reign. Each choice you make will impact the balance, so choose wisely.
I was approached to review 1-800-SUPER by Markus Witzlhofer. He contacted me on behalf of Pangolin Park; a small indie company based in Berlin. They had come out with an interactive audio drama game, and were wondering if I'd be up for reviewing it. He also mentioned that the team were all fans of my blog. As I've mentioned before, I'm a big fan of interactive media, especially Choose Your Own Adventure-type games. Adding an audio component seemed like the next logical step for interactive media. I happily said yes, and Markus sent me a free download code. The game is $2.99 for the rest of you, but honestly, I'd say that's a fair price for the quality and replay potential of this game.
I've already talked about the general mechanics of the gameplay, but let's talk specifics. This is a mobile game available from the App Store. The home screen of the game looks like the interface of an iPhone. You have an email app where the heroes and villains will send you emails about how your advice turned out. You'll also get news emails if the heroes or villains caused collateral damage as a result of your advice. I should mention that the amount of collateral damage you cause doesn't affect anything, other than pushing your meter more towards the evil side. You'll also get emails from Mr. Souls, your hotline mentor. He'll give you tips and tricks to help you out.
There's a notes app that gives basic information on each of the heroes and villains you encounter; their names, strengths, weakness, archenemies, and their mental diagnosis. Be sure you read all of this and keep it in mind; it will be important later in the game. There's a music app so you can listen to some music while you work and wait for calls. You also have a Twixta, the in-universe equivalent of Twitter, app. It lets you keep tabs on the various heroes and villains, even ones who don't call you. It also helps you influence the balance between good and evil. You can like or thumbs down tweets. Like three tweets that lean good, or dislike three that lean evil, let's you move the meter slightly towards good. Doing the reverse tips the meter slightly towards evil. You can even do a combination of liking and disliking as long as you get three tweets that lean in the same direction.
Finally, there is the meditation app. Just press it, if you don't have anything better to do, and the next thing you know you'll be receiving a call. Otherwise, you'll get calls at random while you do stuff and wait around; though usually you don't have to wait long.
Okay, now let's discuss the story itself. There are two distinct aspects to the story. First, there's the main plotline involving Ear. He's blind, but his superhearing more than makes up for that. He's a hero, but isn't above using harsh tactics and roughing up is opponents, so I guess that makes him an antihero. He's the first hero you help and the only hero you help multiple times. The main plot with Ear is kicked off when another hero named Scarab is murdered. He's a hero who has the power to grant good luck to other people, but can't bring any luck to himself. In fact, he's been plagued by terrible luck his entire life, and is living on the street when he gives you a call. It only just now occurred to me that it's pretty weird that he was able to call me despite being homeless. Did payphones make a comeback by 2056? I mean, I guess he could have asked to borrow someone's cellphone. In the grand scheme of things, I suppose it isn't important.
Scarab and Ear grew up in the same orphanage, and Ear considers Scarab his oldest and closest friend. Scarab's death hits Ear hard, and he makes it his personal vendetta to find Scarab's killers and bring them to justice. You have the option to tell him to work alone or team up with other heroes, but this doesn't affect the plot of Ear's storyline. As a side note, sometimes the option you get for answers aren't good answer vs evil answer, but polite answer vs jerk answer. I could never pick the jerk answers with Scarab. He's such a nice guy, despite everything he's been through, and I just felt so sorry for him. That was especially bad from my second play-though onwards, because I knew what was going to happen to him, no matter what I did. And apparently he's the third person to wield the power of the Scarab. Apparently it passes between individuals, though he has yet to find a successor. Actually, looking back now, certain bit of dialogue he gives suggest he knew his time on this mortal coil was about to expire. I wish there had been an option to somehow give him a hug.
We'll get back to Ear in a minute. For now, let's talk about the other characters. We'll start with the ones that are the most important later in the game. Why is this? Well, let's wait until the spoiler section for that. For now, I'd like to take a moment to praise the artwork and character design. The artwork looks like something out of a professional comic book. It's just static images, no animation, but very well drawn static images. One aspect that I particularly like is that the characters all feel genuinely original. They aren't just thinly-veiled versions of pre-existing superheroes and supervillains. Well, for the most part anyway. They feel like original organically created characters with their own backstories and personalities.
Also, the voice acting is absolutely phenomenal. I'm not familiar with any of the voice actors, though a few, such as Ear, sounded somewhat familiar, just can't think why that is. Anyway, though I'm not familiar with the voice actors, they all did excellent jobs. I see bright voice acting futures for them all. Despite the game being designed by a German company, the voice actors are all American. I suppose that's fitting, as many have noted that superheroes are something of a uniquely American phenomenon. You don't really see superheroes from other countries unless they're consciously modeled off of American superheroes. The only exception to that rule I've encountered is Japan, where you have stuff like Super Sentai/Power Rangers, Sailor Moon, and various mecha series.
I've always wondered why Europe never really developed its own superheroes. You could argue that many heroes of Victorian penny dreadfuls were proto-superheroes of a type. My guess is that the cynicism that resulted from enduring two world wars soured European readers on the idea of superheroes. Britain tried to produce superhero comics in the 1960s, but they quickly fizzled out. France has a very robust comic book industry in every genre but superheroes. It's interesting to speculate, but we're getting off-topic.
Our first hero of note is Mister Shine & Sparkle. He's got a power set and costume evocative of Superman, but couldn't be more different in terms of personality. He's an arrogant showboating prima donna who cares more about his social media following than actually saving people. There are a few timed decisions throughout the game, and he's one of them. You have to decide if you want him to put down the phone and be a hero, or use his current crisis as an opportunity for streaming to his followers
The next notable hero is Blood Sister. She's a vampire, but uses her powers to fight crime. Though she's constantly having to fight the urge to give into her primal instincts. You'll have to decide if you should let her take a bite of the delivery boy. She claims to have ordered a rare steak, but if you do encourage her bite the delivery boy, you'll get an email from the local pizzeria about how they have a job opening due to one of their delivery boys mysterious disappearing. Maybe it was a fancy pizzeria that also offers steak? Or maybe the delivery boy was struggling to make ends meet and was working for multiple restaurants? Or maybe "rare steak" was a euphemism. Though, if you do encourage Blood Sister to bite the delivery boy, the end credits will mention that a pair of vampire hunter named Van H. and Simon B. are sharpening their stakes. I guess Buffy S. had prior engagements.
Interestingly, she's one of the only heroes with more than two potential endings to her call. You can tell her to leave the delivery boy alone, tell her to bite him, or tell her to rob a blood bank instead. Though, only tells her to note bite the delivery boy, and nothing else, results in Blood Sister learnibg to controlling during ending during the credits. More about the credits in a bit.
Our third person of note is Dr. Know How. Imagine Tony Stark, only he's a villain rather than a hero, and that's Dr. Know How. He's got the most options, out of all the characters, for how his call turns out. Depending on which way you tell him to drive his car he'll encounter either Sakura Flame or Pool Boy. You can help him get away from Pool Boy by converting his car to flight mode and flying to the Moon, or by running over Sakura Flame. Alternatively, you can have him try to reason with the heroes. Sakura Flame will torch him, but getting covered in third degree burns will convince Dr. Know How to turn his life around and use his inventions for good.
If he confronts Pool Boy, he will drown...and then turn his life around and use his inventions for good. Uh, how could he turn his life around if he's dead? That is particularly odd given that Dr. Know How has three possible ending for the credits; confronting Pool Boy or Sakura Flame being the only option that lead to the same outcome. Seems like there was lack of proofreading during the script writing. But let us move along.
Fast Justice doesn't have superpowers, but that doesn't stop him from enacting justice fighting against the criminal underworld. If only he weren't complete and utterly insane. I got some Kick-Ass vibes from Fast Justice. He certainly looks like something out of a Mark Miller comic. Fast Justice does make at least some good points. He's right that Mr. Shine & Sparkle probably shouldn't be considered a hero purely because he has superpowers. Unfortunately, Fast Justice being completely batshit crazy, and having a completely black and white outlook on life, undermines these points. You know, now that I think about it, in terms of mentality he isn't too different than Rorschach from Watchmen.
Alpha Nukleus is some sort of cosmic entity who has chosen to take human form. This hasn't helped him connect with humanity. In fact, he feels lonely and isolated, because he feels nobody can truly understand him. He's decided to destroy his human shell, which will have the nasty side effect of irradiating millions of people. You must decide if you let him go through with it, or tell the other heroes to stop him. I recall a hero from Astro City, named Atomicus, who was somewhat similar Alpha Nukleus. Not sure if it was intention or coincidence, but if the former, good on the team behind this game. Astro City is an awesome comic book series; I can't recommend it enough.
On one play through, I think the game glitched and I got a call from Alpha Nukleus before Ear made his first call. I told him to break his shell, as I'd already picked the other option, and I was curious what would happen. Million were bathed in radiation, but Mr. Souls sent me an email congratulating me on a fantastic first day, as he usually does after Ear calls for the first time. I repeat, millions of people received massive radiation exposer because of me, probably fatally so, and Mr. Souls considered that a good first day. Well, he did say it was less about right vs wrong, and more about keeping the balance. It may have been a glitch, but was a damn hilarious glitch.
Imagine Cthulhu, only he's an evil business mogul, and that pretty much Vlad Xthul. He wants to expand his business empire, but is having trouble navigating modern social mores. Specifically, he wants to knockout the competition, namely Dr. Know How. You can tell him to either buyout the company, or have him break Dr. Know How's leg. If you pick the first, it will encourage Vlad Xthul to go into politics, and he will be elected president of the Atlantic Union...which is a thing by 2056. I'm guessing it's a union of North America and Europe. Of course, as Ear notes, he can't be much worse than the politicians they already have.
Our last person of note among the really significant characters is Luzida. She has the power to enter people's dreams. Lately, however, she's been plagued by dark visions ever time she goes to sleep. She tried to stay awake as long as possible, and the waters look so inviting. No matter how many times I played this game, I could never tell Luzida to go in the water. I just felt so bad for her, and I couldn't coerce her into potentially committing suicide. I know that seems odd, given that I encouraged Alpha Nukleus and Sakura Flame to kill millions of people just to see what would happen. Well, you know what they say; one is a tragedy, a million is a statistic. And in my defense, the game doesn't try very hard to make you care about killing that many people. Luzida winds up teaming up with Ear later in the game. This will be important later on.
Okay, those are all the characters who will be important later in the game. As such, they're the ones you are mostly likely to encounter, though you won't get all of them in one play though. We will discuss why this is in the spoilers section. Oh, but we aren't done talking heroes and villains just yet. This next batch are mostly just there to help you adjust your karma meter, but they're still pretty fascinating in their own right.
First up is Sakura Flame. We've already briefly discussed her, but her issue is that the other heroes give her no respect. The supervillain Glaze has frozen the city's pipes, and poor Sakura Flame has to thaw them. She's planning on getting revenge on the other heroes by "accidentally" blowing up an oil refinery while she tries to take down Glaze. As previously mentioned, should you encourage her to do so, millions will die in the explosion. Personally, I'm still surprised they have oil by 2056. Also, millions die in the explosion? Just how densely populated is this city? Interesting fact, Sakura Flame was not part or the original release of 1-800-SUPER, but was added in a later update. I'm also slightly confused by her name. I get the flame bit, but why sakura. She doesn't have pink hair, she isn't Japanese, and she doesn't have a cherry blossom motif.
Glaze is also a character you can encounter. He is pretty much the living embodiment of cold. His mother was a glacier and his father was a sea of ice. However, as his power grows, the planet's ice caps shrink, and global warming certainly isn't helping matters. He wants to conquer Antarctica, but is it worth potentially sacrificing his parents? I wouldn't think it would be terribly hard to conquer Antarctica; nobody there but a few temporary scientists, and of course the penguins and leopard seals. Well, unless people have been establishing colonies in Antarctica by 2056.
Timelooper is trying to get out of the hero business. She has the power to time travel and rewind time. However, every time she does this a miniature black hole opens shortly afterwards. They collapse before long, but they do cause collateral damage. She's on a flight to her new life, but wouldn't you know it, Dr. Know How has decided to bomb the plane. Will you encourage Timelooper to use her powers, despite the risk, or take a gamble on Mister Shine and Sparkle actually showing up to help? You can have Timelooper rewind time, stop Dr. Know How, but then a building gets sucked into a black hole. However, if you tell her to rewind time, wait to see what happens, which enviably puts you back at square one, and then call Mister Shine and Sparkle, it will be treated as though Timelooper never used her powers.
Geist.app is an A.I. that is on the run, metaphorically speaking, from its creators. They fear it will turn evil, but Geist.app just wants to preserve its existence. You must decide if it should keep a low profile, or if it should defend itself by any means necessary, consequences be damned. I liked that Geist.app isn't depicted as evil; just scared, and trying to survive. And if you encourage it to keep a low profile it decides to optimize email speeds; that was nice of it.
Maxwell's Hydra is a cyborg monster serpent, and Ear's sworn nemesis. At one point, Ear even calls you while he's fighting Maxwell's Hydra. Despite the fact that Maxwell's Hyrda gets killed at the end of this call, it can still call you later on. Yeah, this game has some issues with continuity. It can't talk, just roar, but you can still help it out. Give it advice on how to how to treat a sore through and it will turn tame, and fight on the side of the heroes. Dr. Know How will, essentially adopt it and give it regular oil changes. Of course, this end will imply that Dr. Know How turned good, even if your choices result in an ending where he remained a villain.
You also occasionally get calls from people who aren't heroes or villains. Big Bang FM is a news station. They give you information about the happenings of the various heroes and villains. Most of it is irrelevant to the game, and most doesn't involve the heroes and villains you council. Still, some of the stories can be amusing. Speaking of amusing, you can also get people who call you by mistake. One person butt dials you. They don't actually say anything, no matter what you choose, so you can hang up on them without taking a penalty. You can also get a call from a guy who firmly believes that he has called the pizza shop. He will hang up, but you'll get an email from him about how he's leaving a very bad review for the pizza shop. Man, that dude had determination, I'll give him that.
Okay, I think that should be everyone. Now we're going to be discussing the spoilers for the ending of the game. As such, turn back now if you don't want any of that.
Last chance. You sure you want to continue?
Well, okay. If everyone who wants out is gone, let's get into it.
So, Ear discovers a cult who worship Gallion, the Demon of Misfortune. Naturally, they weren't too keen on a good luck charm like Scarab. Turns out that Gallion has taken a human host. Nobody, not even the one hosting Gallion, knows who it is. With some help from Luzida, Ear tracks down the host of Gallion. It is someone the heroes completely trusted, and who had access to them at all times
So, who is this mysterious host...you are! There is no option but to kill yourself so that Gallion will die. If you can't do if yourself, Ear will help you out. At this point, Gallion will reveal itself to you. Gallion will quiz you on the six heroes and villains I mentioned at the start of this review. Get all or most of the questions correct and Gallion will be defeated. Well, after you shoot yourself in the head that is
Against all odd, you survive the whole shooting yourself in the head thing. I like to think that Ear is right, and that Scarab watching out for us from beyond the grave. You'll get a few more emails from Ear, and he will also send you a new music file. Press play on it, and the credits will begin The credits begin by showing how all the heroes and villains you helped fared.
Which endings are good, and which are bad, are a matter of personal perspective. I will say that some of them are counterintuitive. For example, if you let Alpha Nukleus shed his human shell, he'll find a heroine who actually understand him. Stopping him makes him turn hostile to the heroes, and it's clear he still has the capability to do it, and is just licking his wounds for now. Similarly, having Sakura Flame blow up the oil refinery, and kill millions of people, gets her the validation she craves. Convincing her not to causes her to get assigned to a penguin research station in Antarctica, though it is mentioned that she is content and happy. Oh, and this can happen even if you encourage Glaze to take control of Antarctica. Amusingly, even the guy who tried to order pizza gets an ending tell how he is doing.
Mr. Souls ending always has him get promoted to managing a hotline for demigods. Is that hint about a potential future game. Because if so, that sounds like a totally awesome idea. You could have the callers be children of different god; and not just the Greco-Roman gods, you could also have children of the Egyptian, Norse, Japanese, Yoruba, Maya, Celtic, or any other pantheon. Trust me, there is a huge untapped market for a game like that. I will rally the Percy Jackson fandom in an instant if you guys are seriously going to make a game like that. But I'm getting off track again.
You can still look around after the credits, though you won't get any more calls. You will still get emails from heroes and villains remarking on how boring everything is now. I guess it's the game going "You're still here? The game is over, go home." Ear will even decide to leave the city as he feels it no longer needs him. Of course, you can replay the game as you wish. I will say that, after about five or six play throughs, I'd experienced pretty much everything there was to be experienced.
Okay, so overall I greatly enjoy this game, but are there any improvements I would suggest? Well, as I've noted, there are several continuity errors that get downright nonsensical at times. Granted, it didn't bother me too much, but I think it would feel more like the choices had actual consequence if this was fixed. It might also be nice if there were more storylines than just the main one with Ear. Maybe there could be certain events or choices that triggered different storylines. It would add to the replay value of the game. I do hope future updates add more characters, as there are several mentioned in passing, or on Twixta, that sound potentially interesting.
Also, despite the setting supposedly being dystopian, I didn't really see it. Well, other than the whole irradiating millions of people being considered a good first day thing. Yeah, there is collateral damage from fights between heroes and villains, but that hardly makes things dystopian.
Still, overall these are minor criticisms. I was very impressed with 1-800-SUPER, and I had a lot of fun playing it. I'd love to see the world of this game expanded upon either in updates or maybe in a sequel game. And I'd just like to reiterate that you guys really should give thought to making a demigod hotline game. I'm just saying, huge untapped market to cash in on. But getting back on topic, I strongly recommend you download 1-800-SUPER today. Believe me, you will be glad that you did.
Link to the original review on my blog, but it is just the same as what is here: http://drakoniandgriffalco.blogspot.com/2020/12/video-game-review-1-800-super.html?m=1

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